US Auto Industry Rose 8% in 4th Quarter, While EV Industry Grew 29%

The US auto industry continues to experience growth following the prolonged recovery from the COVID-19 epidemic and economic shutdown of 2020–2021. In the 4th quarter of 2023, US auto sales increased by 8% compared to the 4th quarter of 2022. Meanwhile, sales of pure electric vehicles (BEVs) rose by 29%. Despite claims that people are not interested in electric vehicles or not purchasing them, EV sales growth has actually been much stronger than the normal auto sales growth. It’s important not to be swayed by the negativity surrounding EVs.

Now, let’s take a look at the charts.

Looking at the chart for auto sales by brand, it’s clear that Toyota, Ford, Chevrolet, and Honda continue to dominate the charts, with more variation between them than in previous quarters. Even more striking, Tesla is holding its own in 8th place, an impressive position for a young, fully electric car company. Furthermore, it’s very close behind #7 Kia, #6 Nissan, and even #5 Hyundai. Could Tesla rise to 5th place in 2024? One can dream! And more often than not, Tesla has achieved its dreams.

Further down the list, Rivian needs to more than double its sales to break into the top 20, but it’s feasible that the company will achieve this, possibly by 2024. As for Lucid, I’m less optimistic about its growth. The Saudi-backed company needs a more mass-market option.

Looking back at Q4 2019, pre-pandemic, the charts above provide insight into which auto brands have improved and which have not over the past five years. Notably, Tesla leads by a large margin in terms of sales growth volume and percentage. Additionally, Kia, Hyundai, and Mazda performed well among larger automakers, while MINI, Volvo, and Porsche did well among smaller automakers.

We also have comparisons to Q4 2020 and Q4 2021, however, due to the significant global disruptions in the auto market and economy, there isn’t much to glean from those. So, let’s delve into a discussion of the trends after comparing them to Q4 2022.

Compared to the 4th quarter of the previous year, Rivian saw the highest percentage growth in the entire auto industry. Although this was based on a relatively low starting point, in terms of volume, 15 other auto brands experienced faster growth than Rivian. Notably, Tesla ranked 5th in overall volume sales growth and 12th in percentage sales growth.

Overall, the charts show that total US auto sales were up compared to the 4th quarter of the two previous years, but were down compared to Q4 2019 and Q4 2020.

Here’s a comprehensive overview of how different brands trended in the past 5 years in the 4th quarter:

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