Tesla has recently released an updated Vehicle Safety Report, providing data for all four quarters of 2023. The report is voluntarily published on a quarterly basis and includes statistics on the number of miles driven per accident registered when using Autopilot technology, not using Autopilot technology, and the U.S. average (based on the most recent data available from NHTSA and FHWA for calendar year 2022).
While the data offers insights into how Autopilot technology influences vehicle safety, it’s important to note that the methodology has some limitations. For example, Tesla includes all accidents, regardless of the cause, in its calculations, despite the company’s claim that over 35 percent of all Autopilot crashes occur when a Tesla vehicle is rear-ended by another vehicle.
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Tesla aims to be one of the world’s safest car brands. Its Autopilot driver assist system is promised to offer a significant improvement in safety compared to conventional driving.
According to Tesla, the number of miles driven per accident registered in 2023 when using Autopilot technology varied from 5.18 to 6.18 million miles driven. The results show fluctuations, with a 21% worse outcome in Q1, a 21% improvement in Q2, a 6% decline in Q3, and an 11% enhancement in Q4. Thus, we cannot conclude that there is a clear, consistent, and noticeable improvement.
Notably, when not using Autopilot technology, Tesla vehicles statistically show more accidents, ranging from 1.00 to 1.52 million miles driven per accident registered. In each of the four quarters of 2023, the results were worse than in 2022, with a 9% decline in Q1, a 5% decrease in Q2, an 11% drop in Q3, and a 29% fall in Q4 year-over-year.
There is a significant difference between the two modes of driving (with or without Autopilot), and the disparity continues to increase over time. However, it’s important to note that the two data sets should not be directly compared to each other as they may arise from different driving scenarios, making them incomparable between categories.
It’s important to understand the limitations of the data and to interpret the results with caution, bearing in mind that the methodology used by Tesla to register accidents displays certain biases. Despite this, Tesla’s report does not allow for a direct evaluation of the difference in safety between driving with Autopilot and without.
The data indicates a significant difference between the two modes of driving, and over time we can monitor how each category improves. It’s important to note that the U.S. average includes a much older vehicle fleet with fewer safety systems, which can significantly influence the comparison with Tesla’s data.