According to official DVLA data, there has been a 270% increase in driving tests conducted in automatic cars over the past decade. The analysis by Adrian Flux has revealed that in 2023 alone, there were 324,064 tests conducted in automatics, a significant acceleration from the average of 1.7 million annual practical tests conducted over the last ten years.
With 61% of young drivers opting for automatic-only practical tests, the trend is poised to continue. Based on this, as well as the decline in manual vehicle sales, one of the UK’s largest specialist motor insurance brokers projects that nearly a million automatic driving tests (920,154) will be conducted in 2033, potentially marking the obsolescence of manual tests by 2040.
This shift could mean that Gen Z might be the last generation to learn how to drive with a manual transmission, with the upcoming Gen Beta (born 2025 – 2039) possibly being the first generation to exclusively learn in automatic cars.
Research from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) and carwow reveals that the percentage of new cars sold with an automatic gearbox has nearly tripled from 24% in 2011 to 62% a decade later. As automatic cars become more prevalent, it is predicted that instructors will shift towards providing automatic-only driving lessons to meet demand.
While Gerry Bucke, General Manager at Adrian Flux, acknowledges the continued demand for manual driving, it is likely that the number of Brits licensed to drive manual vehicles will decline, raising concerns for classic car communities.
Despite this potential shift, Adrian Flux remains confident that the enduring passion of classic car communities will prevail among new generations of enthusiasts due to factors such as nostalgia, appreciation of design, and mechanical simplicity.
It is important that options for manual learning continue to be available, in order to sustain the passion and community associated with classic vehicles,” Gerry Bucke adds.
The availability of manual tests over the next 20 years will depend on new generations of drivers opting to continue learning to drive a manual transmission, rather than solely focusing on automatic cars.
Kevin Monk, Chief Executive Officer at Pass Me Fast, emphasizes the benefits of learning to drive a manual transmission, highlighting that passing the driving test in a manual car allows individuals to drive both manual and automatic vehicles.