Those of us who follow electric vehicle sales know that fully electric vehicles accounted for more than 80% of Norway’s auto sales in 2023, and that 100% electric vehicles already make up more than 24% of the total fleet there. We also know that in China, which has about half of all worldwide EV sales, sales penetration of BEVs was at about 25% in 2023. However, EVs still made up less than 5% of the total fleet in China by the end of the year.
In California, 25% of all cars sold in the last quarter of 2023 were EVs — it’s the biggest EV market in the US by far. However, EVs made up just ~4% of the total California light vehicle fleet at the end of 2022. Even though 1 in 4 new cars sold in California last quarter were EVs, it’s going to take a long time before a significant part of the light vehicle fleet is EVs.
US plugin vehicle sales were only ~8% in 2022 (9.4% in 2023) and the total percentage of the fleet was only 1.3% by the end of the year. On the other hand, older cars tend to sit in the garage while new ones are driven more. This is particularly true of EVs vs. gas cars. In my house, everyone wants to drive the EV. The gas car is definitely the last option to be exercised.
How does this compare to EV penetration in my Northern Utah neighborhood?
When I retired from NASA Goddard Space Flight Center in Maryland in 2005, we moved to Lindon, Utah, 30 miles south of Salt Lake City, to be near our kids and grandchildren. We picked a house with a beautiful view of Utah Valley and Utah Lake. After living for 65 years in regions where Mormons (members of our faith) were a tiny minority, we were shocked to learn that of the 120 families in our neighborhood, approximately 115 were active Mormons and regularly attended our ward (congregation) in our local chapel building. This is the story of EV uptake in our ward.
In 2014, four of our ward members, including me, bought Nissan LEAFs for the killer lease price of $200/month. Two of the members didn’t renew the leases. I, however, was hooked on EVs. I also leased a 2016 Nissan LEAF and then purchased a 2018 Nissan LEAF.
1) On October 19, 2019, I made the big jump and traded the LEAF in for a white, dual-motor, 310-mile range Tesla Model 3 which I still own.
2) At about the same time, a member of our ward purchased a red performance version of the 2019 Tesla Model 3 (see picture below).
The real EV pioneer of the ward had started with an EV conversion of his Triumph sports car back in 2012, but it wasn’t very successful. More recently, he has purchased a 3) Chevy Volt and a 4) Chevy Bolt (see picture below).
5) Also, my neighbor just across the street then purchased a Chevy Volt.