EPA’s Final 2027–2032 Truck Rule Risks Leaving Communities Behind

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has recently finalized its Phase 3 greenhouse gas regulation as part of the administration’s plan to decarbonize the transportation sector. The Phase 3 regulation aims to reduce new greenhouse gas emissions from trucks by up to 62 percent for vocational trucks and up to 40 percent for tractor-trailers by 2032, compared to the current 2024 standards. The analysis suggests that there could be up to 623,000 electric trucks on the road by 2032, with zero-emission trucks accounting for over one third of all new truck sales, contingent on manufacturer compliance strategies and additional policies.

The Joint Office of Energy and Transportation has released a strategy for infrastructure deployment to support the transition to zero-emission trucks, and several states are accelerating this transition with sales requirements that ensure a growing share of zero-emission trucks are sold. However, the EPA’s final rule misses the opportunity to capitalize on this momentum, creating uncertainty in the path towards a zero-emission freight sector. Additionally, the lack of a waiver from the EPA to California for its Advanced Clean Fleets program adds further uncertainty to states that have taken action in the absence of federal policies.

To realign the transition towards zero-emission freight, the Biden administration should develop a comprehensive strategy towards a zero-emission freight sector, with a focus on eliminating emissions from heavy-duty vehicles. This plan should prioritize input from communities disproportionately affected by the current fossil-fueled freight sector to ensure equitable outcomes.

EPA’s Final Rule: Impact and Implications

Compared to EPA’s initial proposal last year, there have been significant changes in the final rule. However, these changes are likely to result in an increase in diesel truck deployment, leading to higher emissions relative to the original proposal.

While some vehicle classes will see improved targets by 2032, overall greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles under this program are expected to rise. The rule’s leniency towards the heaviest vehicle classes could hinder the electrification of tractor-trailers and create obstacles in transitioning freight corridors to electric vehicles.

The rule introduces increased flexibilities, such as extending multipliers for electric trucks and allowing credit trading between vehicle classes. However, the crediting of hydrogen combustion trucks as zero-emission vehicles is a critical concern, as it could impede the deployment of truly zero-emission trucks.

Overall, the structure of the rule falls short in ensuring the widespread deployment of zero-emission trucks.

EPA’s Rule: A Performance Standard, Not an EV Mandate

EPA’s technology-neutral greenhouse gas emissions rule provides manufacturers with the flexibility to choose from various technologies to reduce emissions. While electric vehicles are cost-effective solutions for heavy-duty applications, it is essential for states to set definitive sales requirements to drive manufacturers towards electrification.

States that have adopted the Advanced Clean Truck rule are leading the way in pushing for increased adoption of zero-emission trucks. However, the impact of EPA’s final rule on electric truck deployment remains uncertain, as it heavily relies on manufacturer strategies.

While EPA’s rule is expected to lead to additional electric truck deployment, it may not be sufficient to address climate change and freight pollution adequately. The disparity in deployment across vehicle classes and states underscores the need for a cohesive national strategy towards zero-emission freight.

The Role of Electric Trucks in Emission Reduction

Electric trucks offer a clear pathway towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the freight sector. By transitioning to zero-emission trucks, communities burdened by freight pollution can experience significant environmental and public health benefits.

The deployment of electric trucks aligns with EPA’s goals of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and transitioning to cleaner technologies. However, a comprehensive strategy that includes input from environmental justice communities is crucial to ensure a just transition to zero emissions.

Moving Towards a Zero-Emission Freight Sector

While EPA’s final rule provides some momentum towards zero-emission freight, it is essential to recognize that this effort requires a comprehensive and coordinated approach. The Biden administration should work closely with communities to develop a clear path towards zero-emission freight, focusing on equitable outcomes and public health benefits.

By Dave Cooke. Originally published on The Equation, Union of Concerned Scientists.